NFL Plus Week 4: Expert Predictions, Sleeper Picks, and Bold Upset Bets for the 2025 Season

Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season is set to deliver more drama as underdogs and breakout stars take the spotlight. After a Week 3 filled with shocking upsets, including the Panthers’ 30-0 blowout over the Falcons, experts are bracing for another round of surprises.

Rookie QB Jaxson Dart’s debut for the Giants headlines Sunday’s action, while the Chiefs look to bounce back from their 0-3 start. With fantasy sleepers emerging and bold bets on the table, this week could redefine early-season narratives and shake up the playoff picture.

NFL Plus Week 4: Expert Predictions for the 2025 Season’s Most Unpredictable Matchups

The 2025 NFL season continues to defy expectations as Week 4 approaches with several intriguing storylines. After three weeks of shocking upsets and breakout performances, analysts are reevaluating their preseason predictions. The Kansas City Chiefs’ 0-3 start has been particularly surprising, while teams like the Baltimore Ravens and Chicago Bears have exceeded expectations.

This week features six home underdogs, reflecting the parity that has defined the early season. Key matchups include the Thursday night showdown between the Seahawks and Cardinals, plus the Chiefs’ desperate attempt to avoid an 0-4 start against the Giants.

The Chiefs’ struggles show even the best teams can’t take success for granted in this league. Their offensive line issues are particularly concerning for a team with Super Bowl aspirations.

Chiefs in Crisis: Analyzing Kansas City’s Shocking 0-3 Start

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs find themselves in uncharted territory after three straight losses to begin the 2025 season. The offense that was once the most feared in football now ranks near the bottom of the league in several key categories. Mahomes is being pressured on over 40% of his dropbacks, and the receiving corps has struggled to create separation.

The defense, which carried the team early last season, has regressed significantly. They’ve allowed an average of 28 points per game after giving up just 17.3 per game through the first three weeks of 2024.

Key Factors in Kansas City’s Struggles

• Offensive line injuries have disrupted continuity
• Lack of explosive plays (only 3 completions of 30+ yards)
• Defensive breakdowns in crucial situations
• Poor red zone efficiency (40% TD rate, down from 68% in 2024)

What’s most concerning isn’t the losses themselves, but how the Chiefs are losing. They look unprepared and undisciplined – two things we’ve never associated with Andy Reid teams.

Fantasy Football Sleepers: Week 4’s Hidden Gems

With injuries mounting and some offenses struggling, fantasy managers need to dig deeper than ever for productive players. Here are three under-the-radar options who could provide significant value in Week 4:

Shakir is my favorite sleeper this week. The Dolphins’ defense has been vulnerable over the middle, and Shakir’s route-running precision could lead to a breakout game.

Thursday Night Football Preview: Seahawks vs. Cardinals NFC West Showdown

Both teams enter this crucial divisional matchup at 2-1, looking to keep pace in the competitive NFC West. The Seahawks have been led by Geno Smith’s efficient play (68% completion rate, 5 TDs, 1 INT), while Kyler Murray appears to be finding his rhythm after a slow start.

The key matchup will be Seattle’s secondary against Arizona’s speedy receivers. The Cardinals have three receivers with 40+ yard catches this season, testing Seattle’s rebuilt defensive backfield.

Game-Changing Factors

• Seattle’s ability to contain James Conner
• Arizona’s pass rush against Seattle’s banged-up O-line
• Turnover battle (both teams +2 in differential)
• Red zone efficiency (Sea 60% vs. Ari 55%)

This feels like a game where special teams could decide it. Both offenses are capable but inconsistent, so field position and kicking could be the difference.

Bold Predictions: Potential Upsets and Surprising Outcomes

After a Week 3 that saw underdogs go 10-6 against the spread (including four outright wins by teams getting 5+ points), we’re forecasting more surprises in Week 4:

The Giants (+3.5) will cover against the struggling Chiefs, with rookie QB Jaxson Dart making enough plays to keep it close. Kansas City’s defense has been vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks, and Dart’s athleticism could cause problems.

The Falcons (+4) are another home underdog worth watching. After being shut out by Carolina, expect a strong rebound performance against a Broncos team that’s been inconsistent.

My boldest prediction? The Bears make it two straight wins by beating the Eagles. Chicago’s defense is playing with confidence, and Philly’s offensive line injuries are mounting.

Ravens Ascendant: Are They the AFC’s New Team to Beat?

Baltimore’s convincing 38-30 win over Kansas City in Week 3 announced their arrival as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level, combining his trademark rushing ability with improved passing accuracy (72% completion rate).

The defense, while giving up some big plays, leads the NFL in turnovers forced (8 through three games). This balanced attack makes Baltimore particularly dangerous as they enter a favorable stretch of their schedule.

Why This Ravens Team is Different

• More diverse offensive scheme under Todd Monken
• Improved receiver depth (three players with 150+ yards)
• Roquan Smith anchoring an aggressive defense
• Better late-game execution (2-0 in one-score games)

What impresses me most is how Jackson is managing games. He’s taking what defenses give him rather than forcing plays – a sign of true maturation.

Cowboys in Crisis: Is Mike McCarthy’s Job in Jeopardy?

Dallas’s embarrassing 31-14 loss to Chicago raised serious questions about the team’s direction. Dak Prescott has been turnover-prone (5 INTs in 3 games), and the defense hasn’t lived up to its preseason hype despite Micah Parsons’ strong individual play.

With a crucial matchup against Philadelphia looming, another poor performance could put McCarthy firmly on the hot seat. Jerry Jones has shown limited patience with coaches who underachieve with talented rosters.

The Cowboys’ problems go beyond coaching. Their offensive line isn’t what it used to be, and they lack a true WR1. Those are roster construction issues that no coach can easily fix.

Week 4 Betting Trends and Value Picks

After three weeks of data, some clear betting trends have emerged that could inform Week 4 wagers:

The most intriguing value play might be the Giants +3.5 against Kansas City. New York’s defense has been surprisingly effective, while the Chiefs’ offensive struggles show no signs of abating.

I love the under in Seahawks-Cardinals (47.5). Both defenses are playing well, and divisional games tend to be lower-scoring.