The AFC North has long been a powerhouse division, but 2025’s tumultuous season has shattered expectations. With all four traditional contenders struggling—Baltimore at 1-4, Pittsburgh’s offensive woes, Cleveland’s collapse, and Cincinnati’s quarterback crisis—the division crown is suddenly up for grabs.
For the first time in decades, dark horse candidates like the Titans and Broncos are emerging as viable threats. Could this be the year an outsider steals the AFC North throne amid unprecedented chaos?
- The AFC North remains highly unpredictable, with the Ravens still favored despite a 1-4 start, while injuries and inconsistency plague the Steelers, Browns, and Bengals.
- The Tennessee Titans emerge as a potential dark horse, boasting a physical style and favorable schedule that could capitalize on division chaos.
- The Denver Broncos, with their dominant defense and Sean Payton’s leadership, could surprise if they sweep weaker opponents and benefit from intra-division struggles.
- Despite leading at 3-1, the Steelers face sustainability concerns due to offensive inefficiency, putting Mike Tomlin’s streak of non-losing seasons at risk.
Who Could Win the AFC North If Steelers, Ravens, Browns, or Bengals Fall Short?
The AFC North has long been a battleground dominated by the Ravens, Steelers, Browns, and Bengals. However, the 2025 season has introduced a level of unpredictability that challenges the traditional hierarchy. Injuries and inconsistent performances have plagued these teams, leaving the division race wide open. The Ravens, despite a rocky 1-4 start, remain betting favorites, while the Steelers, coming off a bye week, face a reshaped AFC North landscape.
Meanwhile, the Bengals and Browns are struggling to find consistency, which could open the door for unexpected twists. This season might be the perfect storm for a dark horse candidate to emerge and claim the division title.
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The Injury Equation
Baltimore’s training room resembles a MASH unit, with key players like Lamar Jackson and Nnamdi Madubuike missing significant time. Their offensive line has started five different configurations already. Yet, betting markets anticipate normalizing health and regression to the mean – Baltimore’s 2024 season saw them go 8-2 after a 3-5 start.
The Steelers, on the other hand, are 3-1 but face concerns about sustainability. Their offense ranks 27th in yards per drive and 29th in red zone efficiency. The defense, while stellar, relies heavily on splash plays masking vulnerable run defense.
Why Are the Ravens Still Betting Favorites Despite Their 1-4 Record?
Sportsbooks continue listing Baltimore as AFC North favorites despite their dreadful start, creating confusion among analysts and fans. This apparent contradiction stems from three factors: Lamar Jackson’s potential return, historical second-half surges under John Harbaugh, and the team’s proven roster construction when healthy.
The Ravens’ 1-4 record masks several close losses where key absences proved decisive. Their point differential (-23) compares favorably to Cleveland’s (-31) despite having one more loss. Advanced metrics suggest Baltimore’s performance exceeds their win total, with ESPN’s FPI still ranking them as a top-12 team leaguewide.
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Cleveland’s sluggish start raises existential questions about their contention window. Their offense ranks 28th in yards per play (4.9) despite significant investment, while the defense surrendered 30+ points in three straight games before Week 5. The Deshaun Watson contract looks increasingly burdensome as his QBR (35.1) sits near the league’s basement.
Historical context amplifies concerns – since 2020, teams starting 1-3 make playoffs just 12% of time. Cleveland’s remaining schedule features five current division leaders, including matchups against Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Kansas City. Their -31 point differential trails only Carolina and Arizona leaguewide.
Silver Linings for Cleveland
- Myles Garrett remains dominant with 5.5 sacks through four games
- Rookie WR Jamarion Pierce averages 17.3 yards/catch
- Upcoming schedule softens after Week 7
Could AFC North Chaos Benefit an Unexpected Team Like the Titans?
While no non-North team has won the division since the 2002 realignment, 2025’s perfect storm of circumstances makes the unthinkable plausible. The Titans possess several traits suited for AFC North conquests: physical run game, aggressive defense, and veteran leadership.
Tennessee benefits from playing the NFC West and AFC South – both divisions with multiple struggling teams. Their Week 16-17 road swing through Pittsburgh and Baltimore could become de facto division deciders if chaos prevails. The Titans defense already shut down two top-10 offenses (Dolphins, Packers) this season.
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Denver’s stunning 28-3 dismantling of Cincinnati showcased their dark-horse potential. Sean Payton has quietly rebuilt the Broncos into a physical, disciplined squad reminiscent of his best Saints teams. Their defense allows just 17.8 PPG (4th best) while the offense finally shows rhythm under Bo Nix.
The path requires near-perfect execution: win remaining North matchups (vs PIT, at CLE), benefit from intra-division carnage, and maintain defensive dominance. Denver’s remaining schedule ranks as the NFL’s easiest per ESPN metrics, with only two opponents currently above .500. Historical precedents exist – the 2008 Chargers won the AFC West at 8-8 by navigating similar chaos.
Key Factors for Denver
- Bo Nix maintaining 68% completion rate
- Maintaining NFL-best red zone defense (33% TD rate)
- Sweeping remaining games vs Bears, Panthers, Patriots
Is Mike Tomlin’s Streak of Non-Losing Seasons in Serious Jeopardy?
Despite leading the division at 3-1, Pittsburgh faces legitimate concerns about sustainability. Their offense ranks 27th in yards per drive (27.1) and 29th in red zone efficiency (42.9%). The defense, while stellar (2nd in takeaways), relies heavily on splash plays masking vulnerable run defense (4.7 YPC allowed).
Tomlin’s streak of 17 straight non-losing seasons faces its sternest test yet. Upcoming games against Dallas, Philadelphia, and Kansas City could expose pretender status. Since 2020, teams with Pittsburgh’s offensive profile (bottom-10 in both yards and points) make playoffs just 9% of the time. Their +12 point differential suggests regression may loom.
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