The UFC 319 main event between Dricus Du Plessis and Khamzat Chimaev promises fireworks, as the middleweight champion’s unorthodox style collides with the undefeated challenger’s grappling dominance. Gilbert Burns predicts Du Plessis’ “unbelievable strength” will be the deciding factor in this high-stakes title clash.

With Reinier de Ridder waiting in the wings as a potential replacement, the event carries added intrigue should Chimaev’s notorious weight-cutting issues resurface. Both fighters enter with perfect UFC records, making this one of 2025’s most anticipated matchups.

UFC 319: Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev Title Fight Prediction, Backup Plans & De Ridder’s Title Shot Strategy

The Ultimate Showdown: Analyzing the Middleweight Championship Clash

The UFC 319 main event features one of the most intriguing stylistic matchups in recent middleweight history. Champion Dricus Du Plessis (23-2) brings his unorthodox pressure fighting against Khamzat Chimaev’s (14-0) relentless grappling dominance. Gilbert Burns, who has shared the octagon with both fighters, provides unique insight: “Du Plessis has this unbelievable strength that’s different from anyone else at 185. When he gets those heavy hands on you, it feels like being hit by a light heavyweight.”

Key statistics favor different aspects of each fighter’s game:

• Du Plessis averages 6.22 significant strikes landed per minute
• Chimaev boasts 3.72 takedowns per 15 minutes
• Du Plessis has defended 68% of opponent takedown attempts
• Chimaev absorbs just 1.76 significant strikes per minute

What fascinates me most is how Du Plessis’ awkward movement patterns might disrupt Chimaev’s boxing entries. That “unanimous confusion” style could be the X-factor in striking exchanges.

The five-round championship format adds another layer of intrigue, as Chimaev has never fought beyond three rounds while Du Plessis went the full 25 minutes against Sean Strickland. Weight management will be crucial – Chimaev has missed weight twice before, including a staggering 7.5-pound miss at UFC 279.

Potential Backup Plans: De Ridder’s Calculated Gamble

UFC officials have learned from past weight-cutting disasters and established contingency plans featuring undefeated contender Reinier de Ridder (18-0). The Dutch submission specialist has positioned himself as the ideal replacement should Chimaev falter at weigh-ins. Sources confirm de Ridder will be cageside in Chicago, ready to step in under these conditions:

De Ridder’s strategy reveals careful career calculation: “I prefer facing Dricus honestly. Chimaev fights once a year if we’re lucky, but the champion wants to stay active.” This mirrors UFC’s preference for reliable title defenders over unpredictable stars.

De Ridder’s positioning is brilliant business. By vocalizing his backup status, he pressures the UFC to consider him for the next title shot regardless of UFC 319’s outcome.

De Ridder’s Pathway to Gold

The former two-division champion in another promotion has mapped out his UFC ascent:

• Campaign publicly as Chimaev’s replacement
• Secure victory over Robert Whittaker in eliminator bout
• Challenge winner of Du Plessis-Chimaev by year’s end
• Leverage undefeated record for promotional push

Striking Breakdown: Chaos vs Precision

Du Plessis’ striking has evolved into one of MMA’s most unpredictable systems. Dubbed “South African Style Karate,” his approach combines:

• Bouncing lateral movement with sudden forward bursts
• Arcing punches from unconventional angles
• Clinch knees with unusual weight distribution
• Spinning attacks as defensive counters

Meanwhile, Chimaev employs a more conventional but devastatingly effective boxing game built on:

• Sharp jabs to set up power rights
• Body-head combination punching
• Underrated low kicks
• Clinch work to initiate grappling

Watch for Du Plessis’ T-rex guard when Chimaev attacks the body – those tight elbows could frustrate Khamzat’s boxing entries and create openings for counters.

Significant Strike Comparison

Wrestling and Grappling: Where the Fight Might Be Decided

Chimaev’s wrestling credentials are well-documented – an Olympic-level skillset that’s mauled every UFC opponent except Burns. However, Du Plessis presents unique physical challenges:

• Stronger base than previous Chimaev foes
• Underrated defensive grappling (68% takedown defense)
• Dangerous submission threats from bottom
• Unorthodox scrambling ability

Burns analyzed their styles: “Dricus won’t get held down easily. If Khamzat can’t maintain top control, those gogo plata attempts from bottom could be trouble.” Chimaev must adapt his signature double-leg entries against Du Plessis’ wide stance.

The championship rounds favor Du Plessis if he survives early grappling assaults. Chimaev’s cardio remains unproven in 25-minute fights while Dricus thrived against Strickland.

Takedown Success Rates

Impact on the Middleweight Division

UFC 319’s outcome will reshape the 185-pound landscape. Du Plessis remaining champion maintains stability, while a Chimaev victory introduces unpredictable scheduling. The division currently stacks up as:

1. Champion: Du Plessis
2. #1 Contender: Chimaev
3. Top Challengers: De Ridder, Whittaker, Imavov
4. Dark Horses: Cannonier, Allen, Curtis

Matchmakers face two potential paths forward:

If Du Plessis Wins:

• Fall title defense vs De Ridder/Whittaker winner
• Potential Strickland rematch in 2026
• Chimaev forced to rebuild or move divisions

If Chimaev Wins:

• Extended layoff likely given his track record
• De Ridder may get interim title shot
• Potential superfight with Leon Edwards

The UFC brass secretly prefers Du Plessis retaining. His marketability as an active champion trumps Chimaev’s star power trapped in inactivity.

Predictions and Final Thoughts

After analyzing all factors, the most probable outcomes are:

Du Plessis’ path to victory relies on:

• Early takedown defense
• Cardio advantage in championship rounds
• Volume striking behind unorthodox movement

Chimaev must:

• Secure early takedowns
• Demonstrate improved cardio
• Avoid wild exchanges

My prediction? Du Plessis survives early storm to stop a fading Chimaev in Round 4. Those strange striking angles will accumulate damage until Khamzat’s takedown attempts lose steam.

Regardless of outcome, UFC 319 delivers a pivotal moment for the middleweight division, with ramifications extending throughout 2025 and beyond.