Bills Game Preview: Can Josh Allen Lead Buffalo to 8th Straight Win vs Dolphins & Secure McDermott’s 100th Victory?

The Buffalo Bills are poised to extend their dominance over the Miami Dolphins as they clash in a pivotal Week 10 matchup. Josh Allen aims to lead Buffalo to an eighth consecutive victory against their AFC East rivals, while head coach Sean McDermott stands one win away from a historic milestone.

A victory would make McDermott the sixth NFL coach ever to reach 100 wins in their first nine seasons. With the Dolphins struggling at 2-7 and Buffalo riding momentum from their recent statement win over Kansas City, all eyes are on Allen to deliver another stellar performance against Miami’s vulnerable secondary.

Can Josh Allen Extend Buffalo’s Dominance Over Miami?

The Buffalo Bills enter Sunday’s matchup against the Miami Dolphins with an incredible seven-game winning streak against their division rivals. Quarterback Josh Allen has been the driving force behind this dominance, posting 12 touchdowns against only 3 interceptions in their last five meetings. Allen’s 114.3 passer rating versus Miami is his highest against any AFC East opponent, making him the central figure in this rivalry.

Miami’s defense presents the perfect opportunity for Allen to continue his success. The Dolphins rank 24th in pass defense this season and have struggled mightily against mobile quarterbacks. With Buffalo’s power-run game potentially hampered by James Cook’s ankle injury, offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey will likely rely heavily on Allen’s arm and legs to move the chains.

Key factors favoring Allen:

• Miami allows 8.1 yards per attempt on deep passes (30th in NFL)
• Dolphins have only generated 12 sacks all season
• Allen averages 5.2 yards per carry when facing Miami’s aggressive pass rush

Allen’s performance in these divisional games reminds me of young Tom Brady’s dominance over Buffalo early in his career. The way he reads Miami’s coverages suggests he’s unlocked something in their defensive scheme that others haven’t figured out.

Sean McDermott’s Path to Coaching History

Sunday’s game presents an opportunity for Bills head coach Sean McDermott to join elite company in NFL history. A victory would make him the sixth coach ever to reach 100 wins in his first nine seasons, putting him alongside legends like Don Shula and Bill Belichick. What makes this milestone particularly impressive is McDermott achieving it while rebuilding Buffalo’s franchise culture from the ground up.

McDermott’s .634 winning percentage since taking over in 2017 ranks fourth among active coaches, trailing only Andy Reid, John Harbaugh, and Mike Tomlin. His 21-3 record against AFC East opponents since 2021 demonstrates how completely he’s turned the division’s power structure upside down. The once-dominant Patriots have been supplanted by McDermott’s disciplined, resilient Bills teams.

Remarkable McDermott stats:

• 14-1 ATS when scoring first on the road
• 7-0 in November games vs Miami
• Leads NFL with 32 wins by 10+ points since 2019

What often gets overlooked about McDermott is his development of late-round draft picks into key contributors. That developmental prowess separates good coaches from potentially great ones in my opinion.

Breaking Down the Battle in the Trenches

While quarterback play will dominate headlines, the game may ultimately be decided at the line of scrimmage. Buffalo’s offensive line faces a Miami defensive front that’s been vulnerable against the run (4.6 YPC allowed). With potentially windy conditions forecasted, establishing the ground game becomes even more critical.

The Dolphins’ offensive line presents major concerns, having allowed pressure on 41% of dropbacks this season (31st in NFL). Buffalo’s defensive front, led by Von Miller and Ed Oliver, should be able to generate consistent pressure without needing to blitz extensively. This mismatch could force Miami into quick throws and screen passes to mitigate their protection issues.

Key trench matchups to watch:

• Bills RT Spencer Brown vs Dolphins DE Bradley Chubb
• Miami C Connor Williams vs Bills DT Ed Oliver
• Buffalo’s edge rushers against Miami’s struggling tackles

Weather’s Potential Impact

Forecasts predict 18mph winds with 70% humidity – conditions that historically benefit the more physical team. Buffalo’s power-run game (4.8 YPC) is better suited for these elements than Miami’s finesse approach (3.9 YPC). The Bills also hold a significant advantage in turnover differential (+7 compared to Miami’s -3), making ball security in tricky conditions another potential deciding factor.

I’ve watched countless games in these conditions at Hard Rock Stadium. The way the wind swirls in that open-ended bowl can make routine throws an adventure. This favors Allen’s arm strength over Tua’s precision passing.

Betting Lines and Value Opportunities

While public money heavily favors Buffalo, sharp bettors appear to be finding value in Miami’s side considering the weather conditions and divisional underdog trends. Historically, AFC East underdogs getting +7.5 or more in November are 38-21-2 ATS since 2019, presenting a compelling case for taking the points with Miami.

Alternative betting angles include:

• First half under 23.5 (both teams average just 9.7 first-quarter points combined)
• Josh Allen over 45.5 rushing yards (has hit in 4 of last 5 vs MIA)
• Buffalo to score first (-160, McDermott’s teams excel with early leads)

The most intriguing prop might be Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards. Buffalo consistently double-teams him, but wind conditions could force Miami to rely more on short passes to their explosive playmaker.

Will Miami Finally Solve Their Buffalo Problem?

The Dolphins’ seven-game losing streak against Buffalo represents Miami’s longest active drought against any division opponent. While home underdogs in the division often present value, Miami’s fundamental mismatches make this a difficult spot to expect different results. The Dolphins rank last in third-down conversion rate allowed (51.3%) and 27th in red zone defense – two areas where Buffalo’s offense thrives.

Miami’s path to an upset likely requires:

• Forcing multiple turnovers (Buffalo has only 7 giveaways this season)
• Establishing the run to keep Allen off the field (unlikely given their OL struggles)
• Creating explosive plays against Buffalo’s secondary (possible but inconsistent)

Historical trends suggest the Dolphins are due for a breakthrough, but until they prove capable of matching Buffalo’s physicality and execution in critical moments, the Bills remain the safer bet to extend their division dominance and deliver McDermott his milestone victory.

Remember when Miami ended New England’s division dominance streak years ago? This feels like a similar inflection point game – if Miami can’t win here, when will they ever beat Buffalo?